So let’s put on our conspiracy hats for a minute and make some predictions.
Prediction one: there will be a terrorist attack or a significant attack on the continental US or an ally in the first year of Trump’s presidency.
Prediction two: Failing that, President Trump will try an enormous notoriously liberal plan, such as single payer health or reparations.
Prediction three: Failing that, President Trump will pass every conservative plan he can, such as expanding fossil fuels, repealing Obamacare and replacing it with reduced regulation, and finding a way to end Roe Vs. Wade.
So the 2016 election resembled a recent election in some spooky ways. In both cases it ended with the winner of the popular vote losing the election. In both cases the more qualified yet boring candidate lost to the one who was more “fun.” In both cases the winner is starting with historically bad favoribility ratings. It does differ in a few ways. For one, the FBI influenced this election. The timing of the announcements about the investigation into Clinton’s email was marked by many as dangerous and possibly malicious. And let’s not forget the rumors of infighting within the FBI as to whether or not to hurt Clinton or help her.
Conspiracy theorists love the 9/11 attacks. It was such a black swan of an event with world changing implications. The most popular theories usually say something like the FBI knew it was going to happen but allowed it, and may have made it even worse. Jet fuel can’t melt steel, and all that. If they’re right, and it was a conspiracy, then this would be another time for such an attack. Hence prediction one.
Now, prediction two is based on the idea that Trump is a narcissist who cares massively what people think. If his favoribilities stay low, and there are no convenient violent acts, then the next best thing would be with a massive liberal plan of some type. Free college. Massive investments in solar. Repeal Obamacare and replace it with Medicare for all. Something like that.
Prediction three is based on the idea that he’s not a narcissist. That he genuinely is a conservative who truly believes in small government and Puritanical social values. If that’s the case, he’s going to take advantage of the republican senate and house and push through every conservative pet cause that he can.
Finally, one last prediction. I think it’s the least likely, but hey, who knows. Trump is a man who knows that people don’t vote based on facts, they vote based on feelings. His whole campaign was a ruse and he will actually be a thoughtful, careful man who considers the welfare of all Americans, and humanity as a whole. Hey, a guy can dream.
Edit: Someone pointed out I missed an obvious possibility for Trump’s first year. There will be an assassination attempt on him that will drive his favorability numbers. I can’t believe I missed that.