So the latest news out of Trumpland is that he somehow saved 1,000 jobs from leaving Indiana. At the time of this writing, there’s absolutely no information about how he did so, but he is taking credit for it, and the company in question confirms that it is no longer going to move all the jobs. That raises the question, is Trump the kind of crazy we need?
I’m an enormous fan of Clinton’s. I love her for a lot of reasons, but probably the biggest is that I think we need a woman in charge. Sure, that’s sexist of me. I never pretended I’m not prejudiced. Women have been second class citizens for most of human history, and all of American history. Women only got the vote 100 years ago, and it was a fight to get it. Women have to deal with far more bullshit than men do, from health to economics to the way they’re portrayed in the media. This is going to have a lot of effects, but one of the biggest is a sense of empathy. A man can never really empathize with women over say, menstruation, but nearly every woman can empathize with every man over, say, getting passed over for a promotion. I want that sense of empathy in charge. I want someone who has dealt with the worst of what our society has to offer making decisions. Putting another priviliged man in charge means that some people are going to get left behind. Our society deserves a woman in charge. But maybe we need a crazy person.
Trump is unpredictable. While the general trends of his behavior are going to relatively easy to understand, in any given situation it’s a complete coin toss how he’ll behave. On the campaign trail, he was very hard on Pakistan, and not without cause. Bin Laden was ultimately found hiding there. But he recently spoke to the head of state there, and Pakistan released a transcript of the conversation. It’s completely gushing. I don’t know a lot about diplomatic relations, but I’m pretty sure that generally these kinds of conversations will be pretty dry and boring. Don’t want to rock the boat if you can avoid it. Of course, we don’t know if that transcript is accurate, but I believe it is. It is completely in character for Trump. So now think of this from the perspective of the Pakistani Prime Minister.
You know that publicly he’s willing to say bad things about your country, and privately he sucks up so badly you’ll have a hickey for weeks. So now you have to think that there’s a chance he’s going to behave in ways that benefit you. Maybe not, but there’s a chance. If you’ve ever dealt with anyone unpredictable before then you know it’s natural to try and modify your behavior to get the crazy person to do what you want. Frequently, that means being nicer and giving away more than you would otherwise.
Imagine if Clinton had won, and she had the same dry conversation that high ranking diplomats usually have. It would be clear that the needs of the US and Pakistan don’t really align, and both sides can go back to undermining each other. There’s no benefit to doing otherwise. That brings us to the prisoner’s dilemma. But this is already a long enough post, so that will have to wait for part 2.