It’s time to make some predictions about the coming Trump presidency. For some context, I’ve already made one prediction that we will either see a significant terrorist attack or assassination attempt within the first year. In fact, someone was already arrested for an assassination attempt, but I don’t count it, as he’s not president yet.
My predictions are based on a few assumptions. First, free will doesn’t exist. Second, rationality is not a part of the decision making process. Thirdly, behavior in the past is a good indicator of behavior in the future. Finally, nearly everyone else disagrees with me on these points. Ok, on to the show.
By some indicators, the economy will continue to improve, but the average Trump voter will see their fortunes drop. This is based on republicans historic aversion to helping the poor. Unemployment will drop, but wages will stay stagnant. And the general cost of living will continue to rise, keeping the poor where they are. The focus will be to get people into jobs, especially low paying jobs, which will make sure that people have just enough money to live, but with no extra time or money for training to improve their situation. Gross Domestic Product will rise, but all those benefits will go to the top few percent. Taxes will increase slightly on the middle class, and drop for the rich. This will be considered a win for Trump.
Marijuana will continue it’s slow march towards legalization. That one will take longer, given that Jeff Sessions will be attorney general, but as it becomes clear that Trump’s policies are going to directly hurt those that voted for him, he will need a real win in order to change the story. Marijuana is also useful to help keep people docile and content. As it becomes more and more clear that the coming administration’s focus will be to keep people poor and stationary, republicans will come out on the side of legalization as a way to keep people quiet. They will not outright say that, but there will be dog whistles indicating it. All that will take is getting alcohol and tobacco companies behind legalization and it will be a foregone conclusion.
We will see more weather disasters and our response to them will grow more and more incompetent. Global warming will continue, and with the coming drop in tax revenue and general bad attitude towards government in general, we will not be able to mount a real reaction to disasters, and no preventative measures whatsoever. This will be especially apparent globally, but it will hit America very hard as well.
Billionaires will continue their increase in power. Right now, if you’re wealthy enough, laws are essentially voluntary. In other words, you have nearly unlimited power within your own life. That power will bleed into the rest of the world. Some of that will be benevolent, but most will be self-serving. So look for more high-skilled immigration into the US, more lax laws on the financial industry, and more technological innovation with all the good and bad that entails. Also look for more moonshot projects, such as asteroid mining and floating cities.
Trump will set a record for firing more cabinet members in his first two years than anyone else. They will make good scapegoats for the coming disasters, and it will add to his reputation as a good business man.
The democrats will not make any significant wins in the next round of elections in 2018. They still will not have learned the lessons of the previous 20 years where a charming candidate, voter suppression, and outright lies have an almost insurmountable advantage.
Those are the obvious predictions. There are others, less likely, and more optimistic, but that is going to wait for another post.