So we briefly explored the worst case scenario recently. It’s time to give some thought to the opposite.
In order to consider what benefits a Trump presidency might bring, I need to make an assumption that few people do. I have to assume that those on the other end of the ideological spectrum are just as big patriots as I am. They want the best for our country, and indeed, world as a whole. The bubble-like nature of our world makes this a difficult gap to jump, but for the sake of argument we’ll assume that’s the case.
Healthcare is the first thing to consider. The new president hasn’t even been sworn in and the Senate is trying their damndest to repeal the Affordable Care Act. I have to assume that our elected leaders would rather avoid the tens of millions of people losing their insurance, so one plausible outcome would be for them to pass a law very similar to what is currently there. Label it Trumpcare. Hell, Trump made his money by sticking his name on things other people built, so that’s perfectly in keeping with his pattern. The other possibility is that Congress can’t get any type of healthcare law passed, and they really do let all those people suffer and die. If that’s the case, we may have a real chance at getting single payer healthcare in the next decade.
Infrastructure is next. Trump has stated, many times, that he wants an infrastructure package passed. That may happen, and that’s something we sorely need. New roads, plumbing, ideally better mass transit would make a huge impact on our society. Just the jobs created during a building boom would be a huge benefit. I’d give something like this an 80% chance of passing.
If we can get infrastructure and healthcare to improve in any way that will improve our economy. I don’t think that’s a controversial opinion.
War is less likely. Trump is neatly in Putin’s pocket. And with Russian and the US as allies, war with China is less likely. It’s an old observation that if you are in a world with more than one center of power, be on the side of the majority. China would be able to fight a real war if it was just China and the US. But China vs the US and Russia? Not so much.
That’s about it. Other things such as innovation, the environment, national debt, and human rights will all probably get worse. I don’t see any way around it. But I’ve written before that in a longer view and in an indirect way, these things could potentially improve too. I would describe myself as 55% optimistic, 40% pessimistic, and the remaining part telling myself that nothing humans do makes any difference to the universe anyway. We shall see.