Who Can Beat Trump?

It’s a little early to start thinking about the 2020 election.  But Trump has already began campaigning.  He had his first rally in Florida recently, and he’s selling chotchkis on his website with 2020 printed on them, so I think I can legitimately start speculating.So assuming Trump doesn’t get impeached, or quit, or get assassinated, he is going to be the republican nominee.  As a small aside, if he isn’t the nominee, that might be the least likely event to happen in presidential history.  Mental note: bet on that happening.  Anywho.  The democrats will have someone run.  No one is sticking their neck out yet, no one is taking leadership of all the protestors making their voices heard.  That’s similar to after Barack Obama’s wins.  Indeed, no one ever really took control over the Tea Party.  There are lots of lower elections that Tea Partiers won, mostly in the House of Representatives, but none of those people ever seriously ran for president.  So let’s look away from the protestors for guidance as to who will win, or at least, who has the best chance of beating Trump.

We should also briefly look at who won’t run.  I can’t imagine Bernie Sanders running at age 80.  And I think Hillary Clinton is broken psychologically from her loss to a shaved orangutan.  It’ll have to be someone new.

Looking at the last few primary winners we can see a few trends.  Everyone who won was either a governor or senator, with the exception of Trump.  Governors and senators have something in common.  Since there are only 50 governors and 100 senators there aren’t very many of them, giving them lots of opportunities for national attention.  That’s something Trump did have in common.  He was already very well known nationally, largely due to his TV show.  So we need someone who already is well known at the national level.  There are a few senators that come to mind.  Elizabeth Warren.  Corey Booker.  Another thing is they have to be known, but not too well.  A blank slate who can take advantage of a great deal of attention would be perfect.  

So we want someone nationally known, but not too well.  What about non-politicians?  Mark Zuckerberg?  Tim Cook?  Brad Pitt?  Zuckerberg we can largely rule out.  He didn’t come off too good from that movie about him.  Tim Cook?  A gay president with an eye on the future and a mind for detail would be great, but too many people reflexively hate Apple just because.  An actor is possible. And don’t underestimate the impact of being attractive.  I wouldn’t rule an actor out completely.  Hollywood has a reputation for being full of crazy liberals, and 4 years of strict conservative rule may make people ready to embrace a liberal philosophy.

It will also have to be someone who can counter Trump’s benefits. He was elected largely on a platform of being successful in other areas.  Someone with success outside of the political realm could counter that benefit.

Democrats will need someone new, but with excellent name recognition.  Someone who can embrace a great deal of attention and point it where he or she wants it.  Someone who can point to something other than a political career where she or he had success.  My money is on George Clooney.  I’m not sure we can convince him to run.  But if he did, I think he would have better chances than anyone of beating Trump.

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